This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Surprising Title Charge
It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.
As per Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.